What is the Forecast Workbench showing me? – Transportation

The organization of the metrics is laid out in a framework to help the user understand outputs and then make decisions based on those outputs. The four types of data shown are identifying, context, results, and impact. Additional context is provided below where necessary.

Identifying Data

Date – Departure Date
Service – Train identifier
Journey – The Origin-Destination for each leg

Context Data

Fcst Conf – Forecast confidence is represented by High (3 green bars) / Medium (2 yellow bars) / Low (1 red bar) value, which is derived from historical forecast accuracy for similar departures.

Sp Events – This is an indication of the special event impact from any special events that are associated with either the OD or the ODs that pass through a leg. It shows how much of the total demand is being driven by the special event specifically. It can be either positive or negative.
VLY Dmd Pace – Versus last year demand pacing is an indication of current cumulative bookings versus how many cumulative advanced purchase bookings were realised by the same point in the booking curve in the previous year.
LY Adv Bkgs – Last year advanced bookings is the final number of realised advance bookings (individual and group) from the previous year (excluding flex).
Bkd Ind Dmd – Booked individual demand is the measure of current realised individual bookings (excluding flex).
Bkd NonFcst Dmd – Booked Non-Forecasted Demand is realised group and flex bookings. FareVantage^TM does not forecast for either of these types of bookings, but once they have been realised they may have an impact on future pricing actions.
LY Final Yield – Last year final yield is calculated using last year final revenue and last year advanced bookings to calculate a realised yield.

Results Data

Fcst Rem Dmd – Forecasted Remaining Demand is the primary system output of the Demand Forecast. We forecast remaining demand so that we can incorporate current bookings and historical booking curves to create the most accurate forecast possible.
Fcst Total Dmd – Forecasted Total Demand is the sum of Bkd Individual Demand, Bkd NonFcst Demand, and the Forecasted Remaining Demand. This number can exceed allocations, which could indicate an opportunity for price increase. This is the column that a user could override if they believe they have newer or better information than FareVantage^TM. If the user commits an override the value in this column is bolded and shows the overridden value.
- Please Note: If a new leg is loaded and has no historical data, the best way for it to receive allocation is to bulk override the Forecast Total Demand. This new information will be used on the overnight and the new leg optimized appropriately.
OTB ∆ – OTB ∆ is the net number of bookings and cancellations that occurred between the overnight update and the intraday update. (i.e. today train GR123, from AAA to BBB, had 3 cancellations and 5 bookings processed since the overnight update. Thus the OTB ∆ is equal to +2) This number can be positive or negative depending on the net number of bookings and cancellations. This metric is only available for trains that depart within the next 48hours.

Impact Data

Proj Bkd % - Projected Booked Percentage is a calculation based on Forecasted Total Demand and journey level allocations. At the OD level, this projects what percentage of the journey’s allocations (total allocations with excess?) are expected to sell (forecast is at the reference price before optimization).
Proj Rev – Projected Revenue is derived from Booked Revenue and the forecasted remaining demand and the average price for that OD. This serves as directional guidance and is not a primary output of the system.
Proj Rev Pace – Projected Revenue Pacing is a function of Projected Revenue and last year’s final revenue. It is a way to measure Year over Year performance.
Proj Dmd Pace – Projected Demand Pacing is a measure based on Forecasted Total Demand and last year’s advanced bookings. It is a way of measuring year over year performance.
Proj Yield – Projected Yield is a measure based on Projected Revenue and Forecasted Total Demand. It estimates what the average price a customer will pay for that OD or Leg.

Hover Over

Service – Train identifier
Departure Time – Departure time of the train
O/D – Origin / Destination