Can I override the Demand Forecast? – Transportation

Yes!

FareVantage^TM is designed to encourage forecast overrides to influence the outcomes of the inventory optimization. Managers will inherently have information that the forecast system cannot account for. Whether they be one-time effects such as a bad storm approaching that will discourage travel, or macroeconomic changes – a major headquarters opening, which will serve as a major source of commuter traffic – Managers are always going to have contextual information that will impact demand.

Users can impact the demand forecast via an override of a single Departure Date / Service / OD, or they can make bulk overrides to multiple selections.

Additionally, after making an override, a user can revert the forecast using the “Revert Forecast” button. This will remove the overridden value and replace it with the latest generated forecast.

Single Record Overrides

By clicking a record in the “Fcst Total Dmd” field, the single record Demand Overrides dialog box will appear. On this screen, we display the FareVantage^TM generated Total Forecasted Demand, and two options for overriding that value in the system. The user can provide a numeric override, which would set the new Overridden Forecast to a value that the user believes will be the real demand. The user can also submit a Base-0 Percentage Override. If the user believes that an O/D with 100 forecasted demand will be around 5% less busy than usual, then a user can simply enter -5%, and the total forecast override will be 95. This is helpful for larger ODs or ones for which the Manager is less sure about the final demand.

Bulk Demand Overrides

The user can override multiple ODs at a time. Select the checkboxes beside the desired ODs, and then select the “Bulk Override” button beside the metrics selector. A dialog with a % Override option and a numeric override option appear. The percentage override will affect each OD individually. For instance, if the user applies a 6% override, each OD override will be 106% of the system forecast. The numeric options will affect each OD the same by applying the same numeric override too all of the selected ODs.